Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#69 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 7:13
G2 Ares#97 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSAW ban
40%57%
SAW · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
SAW · 0 mapsedge SAW +10%G2 Ares · 1 map
NukeG2 Ares ban
40%50%
SAW · 1 mapedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
SAW 50%G2 Ares 50%
The model gave 50% on SAW — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 53%
Series resultG2 Ares 7:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1