Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#69 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 9:13
MTX#179 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage
40%40%
SAW · 1 mapnearly even +0%MTX · 1 map
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
SAW 50%MTX 50%
The model gave 50% on SAW — the map was taken by MTX.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 53%
Series resultMTX 9:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1