ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukefnatic ban
50%63%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Lavked +13%Lavked · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%60%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
InfernoLavked ban
40%67%
fnatic · 1 mapedge Lavked +27%Lavked · 2 maps
MirageLavked pick
40%67%
fnatic · 1 mapedge Lavked +27%Lavked · 2 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 2 maps
AnubisLavked ban
60%50%
fnatic · 1 mapedge fnatic +10%Lavked · 0 maps
Overpassfnatic pick
50%60%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Overpass
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
fnatic 23%Lavked 77%
The model gave 77% on Lavked — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
fnatic 27%Lavked 73%
The model gave 73% on Lavked — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 68%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2