ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 1:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SPARTA#89 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSPARTA ban
67%40%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +27%SPARTA · 1 map
NukeNemesis ban
60%67%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 2 maps
AncientNemesis pick
60%40%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +20%SPARTA · 1 map
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
MirageSPARTA ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
50%50%
Nemesis · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Nemesis 50%SPARTA 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 66%
Series resultNemesis 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1