Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Lilmix#191 in the world · win 13:5series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
40%50%
Lilmix · 6 mapsedge dJ uNT frIENDS +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%40%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +17%dJ uNT frIENDS · 1 map
Dust2Lilmix ban
29%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge dJ uNT frIENDS +21%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
InfernodJ uNT frIENDS ban
60%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
OverpassdJ uNT frIENDS ban
60%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%dJ uNT frIENDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Dust2
2. BandJ uNT frIENDS remove Inferno
3. BanLilmix remove Mirage
4. BandJ uNT frIENDS remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Lilmix 40%dJ uNT frIENDS 60%
The model gave 60% on dJ uNT frIENDS — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 60%
Series resultLilmix 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1