Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Lilmix#191 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 11:13
INFINITE#56 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
44%50%
Lilmix · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +6%INFINITE · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +7%INFINITE · 0 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
29%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +21%INFINITE · 0 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
60%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%INFINITE · 0 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
60%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%INFINITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Dust2
2. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
3. BanLilmix remove Mirage
4. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Lilmix 44%INFINITE 56%
The model gave 56% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 70%
Series resultINFINITE 11:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1