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ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
50%67%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
60%60%
Ground Zero · 1 mapnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
67%50%
Ground Zero · 2 mapsedge Ground Zero +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
NukeGround Zero pick
60%50%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%40%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Ground Zero 63%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 37%
The model gave 63% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Anubisprediction correct5:13
Ground Zero 31%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 69%
The model gave 69% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 60%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2