ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FURYloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%67%
Abyssal · 2 mapsedge FURY +17%FURY · 2 maps
NukeAbyssal pick
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%FURY · 2 maps
DefaultAbyssal ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FURY · 2 maps
Dust2Abyssal ban
50%50%
Abyssal · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FURY · 2 maps
MirageFURY ban
67%50%
Abyssal · 2 mapsedge Abyssal +17%FURY · 0 maps
AnubisFURY pick
40%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge FURY +10%FURY · 0 maps
OverpassFURY ban
60%50%
Abyssal · 1 mapedge Abyssal +10%FURY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
2. BanFURY remove Mirage
3. PickAbyssal take Nuke
4. PickFURY take Anubis
5. BanFURY remove Overpass
6. BanAbyssal remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Abyssal 50%FURY 50%
The model gave 50% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 59%
Series resultAbyssal 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1