NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 16:14series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 16:14
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeAxial ban
77%50%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%Axial · 0 maps
InfernoAxial ban
67%50%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%Axial · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%Axial · 0 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
22%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge Axial +28%Axial · 0 maps
MirageAxial ban
78%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +28%Axial · 0 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
38%50%
SportsBetExpert · 4 mapsedge Axial +12%Axial · 0 maps
DefaultSportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge Axial +10%Axial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
2. BanAxial remove Mirage
3. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
4. BanAxial remove Nuke
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Default
6. BanAxial remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
SportsBetExpert 78%Axial 22%
The model gave 78% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 74%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 16:14
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1