NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 8:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFor Fun ban
58%50%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +8%For Fun · 2 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
55%33%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge Chicken Coop +22%For Fun · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%For Fun · 4 maps
AncientChicken Coop ban
57%67%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 2 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
40%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 2 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%60%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge For Fun +20%For Fun · 1 map
OverpassFor Fun ban
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
3. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
4. BanFor Fun remove Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Ancient
6. BanFor Fun remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
Chicken Coop 58%For Fun 42%
The model gave 58% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 58%
Series resultFor Fun 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1