NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 13:6series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:6
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFarmVille ban
69%50%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +19%FarmVille · 0 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 2 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
70%33%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +37%FarmVille · 2 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%FarmVille · 2 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%FarmVille · 0 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%40%
Marsborne · 1 mapnearly even +0%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
4. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
5. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
6. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Marsborne 50%FarmVille 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 65%
Series resultMarsborne 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1