NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
LAG#95 in the world · win 13:4series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 13:4
Beyond Limits#206 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
44%60%
LAG · 5 mapsedge Beyond Limits +16%Beyond Limits · 1 map
InfernoLAG ban
50%40%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +10%Beyond Limits · 1 map
MirageBeyond Limits ban
50%40%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +10%Beyond Limits · 1 map
AncientLAG ban
38%50%
LAG · 4 mapsedge Beyond Limits +12%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Dust2Beyond Limits ban
71%50%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +21%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
DefaultBeyond Limits ban
50%50%
LAG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
60%50%
LAG · 1 mapedge LAG +10%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Anubis
2. BanBeyond Limits remove Dust2
3. BanLAG remove Ancient
4. BanBeyond Limits remove Default
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanBeyond Limits remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
LAG 60%Beyond Limits 40%
The model gave 60% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 69%
Series resultLAG 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1