NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Villainous#209 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVillainous ban
33%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%Wanted Goons · 8 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%50%
Villainous · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
60%40%
Villainous · 6 mapsedge Villainous +20%Wanted Goons · 1 map
MirageWanted Goons ban
43%38%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +5%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%38%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +22%Wanted Goons · 4 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%29%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +11%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
OverpassVillainous ban
50%57%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Wanted Goons · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
3. BanVillainous remove Ancient
4. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
5. BanVillainous remove Overpass
6. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Villainous 56%Wanted Goons 44%
The model gave 56% on Villainous — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 54%
Series resultWanted Goons 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1