NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#161 in the world · win 13:4series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 13:4
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%64%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +20%Overtake Sector · 10 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
33%42%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +9%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
50%55%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +5%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
71%36%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +35%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
46%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
60%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
4. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderMirage (44% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Iowa Stormboar 31%Overtake Sector 69%
The model gave 69% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 54%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1