NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
LAG#95 in the world · win 16:12series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 16:12
DETONATE#193 in the world · loss 12:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
50%44%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +6%DETONATE · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%44%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +6%DETONATE · 5 maps
NukeDETONATE ban
44%43%
LAG · 5 mapsnearly even +1%DETONATE · 3 maps
AnubisDETONATE ban
67%33%
LAG · 2 mapsedge LAG +34%DETONATE · 5 maps
AncientLAG ban
38%60%
LAG · 4 mapsedge DETONATE +22%DETONATE · 1 map
Dust2DETONATE ban
71%40%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +31%DETONATE · 1 map
CacheLAG ban
50%50%
LAG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. BanLAG remove Ancient
4. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
5. BanLAG remove Inferno
6. BanDETONATE remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct16:12
LAG 80%DETONATE 20%
The model gave 80% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 76%
Series resultLAG 16:12
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1