NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Villainous#209 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
50%42%
Villainous · 8 mapsedge Villainous +8%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
MirageVillainous ban
38%60%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +22%Overtake Sector · 11 maps
AncientVillainous ban
33%36%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
60%57%
Villainous · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%55%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +15%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
60%60%
Villainous · 1 mapnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
Villainous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
3. BanVillainous remove Ancient
4. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
5. BanVillainous remove Mirage
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
Villainous 47%Overtake Sector 53%
The model gave 53% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 61%
Series resultOvertake Sector 6:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1