NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
NuTorious#204 in the world · loss 13:16series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:16
Beyond Limits#206 in the world · win 16:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuTorious ban
30%50%
NuTorious · 6 mapsedge Beyond Limits +20%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%40%
NuTorious · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Beyond Limits · 1 map
MirageBeyond Limits ban
63%40%
NuTorious · 4 mapsedge NuTorious +23%Beyond Limits · 1 map
AnubisNuTorious ban
33%40%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Beyond Limits +7%Beyond Limits · 1 map
CacheBeyond Limits ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge Beyond Limits +7%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
40%60%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Beyond Limits +20%Beyond Limits · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
2. BanBeyond Limits remove Mirage
3. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
4. BanBeyond Limits remove Cache
5. BanNuTorious remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
NuTorious 55%Beyond Limits 45%
The model gave 55% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Beyond Limits.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 53%
Series resultBeyond Limits 13:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1