ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBanda Chuya ban
40%29%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Dark Moon +11%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
AncientBanda Chuya pick
33%40%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsedge Banda Chuya +7%Banda Chuya · 1 map
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
50%40%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%Banda Chuya · 1 map
DefaultDark Moon pick
50%60%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Banda Chuya +10%Banda Chuya · 1 map
InfernoDark Moon ban
40%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Banda Chuya +10%Banda Chuya · 0 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
50%40%
Dark Moon · 0 mapsedge Dark Moon +10%Banda Chuya · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Inferno
2. BanBanda Chuya remove Mirage
3. PickDark Moon take Default
4. PickBanda Chuya take Ancient
5. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
6. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Dark Moon 53%Banda Chuya 47%
The model gave 53% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Dark Moon 60%Banda Chuya 40%
The model gave 60% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Dark Moon.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Moon · 50%
Series resultDark Moon 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2