ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#210 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
XI#218 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
40%50%
BERG · 6 mapsedge XI +10%XI · 4 maps
NukeBERG ban
36%43%
BERG · 7 mapsedge XI +7%XI · 3 maps
MirageXI ban
50%50%
BERG · 6 mapsnearly even +0%XI · 0 maps
AnubisXI pick
38%50%
BERG · 4 mapsedge XI +12%XI · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
BERG · 1 mapedge XI +7%XI · 2 maps
Dust2BERG ban
50%50%
BERG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%XI · 2 maps
InfernoXI ban
50%50%
BERG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%XI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanXI remove Mirage
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickXI take Anubis
5. BanXI remove Inferno
6. BanBERG remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
BERG 40%XI 60%
The model gave 60% on XI — the map was taken by XI.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
BERG 53%XI 47%
The model gave 53% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
BERG 40%XI 60%
The model gave 60% on XI — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 56%
Series resultBERG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3