ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons Force#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ZOTIXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFalcons Force pick
50%50%
Falcons Force · 6 mapsnearly even +0%ZOTIX · 0 maps
CacheZOTIX ban
67%50%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Falcons Force +17%ZOTIX · 0 maps
NukeFalcons Force ban
25%50%
Falcons Force · 4 mapsedge ZOTIX +25%ZOTIX · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge ZOTIX +7%ZOTIX · 0 maps
AncientZOTIX ban
50%50%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ZOTIX · 0 maps
AnubisFalcons Force ban
50%50%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ZOTIX · 0 maps
Dust2ZOTIX pick
40%50%
Falcons Force · 1 mapedge ZOTIX +10%ZOTIX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Nuke
2. BanZOTIX remove Cache
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickZOTIX take Dust2
5. BanZOTIX remove Ancient
6. BanFalcons Force remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Falcons Force 47%ZOTIX 53%
The model gave 53% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Infernoprediction missed16:13
Falcons Force 46%ZOTIX 54%
The model gave 54% on ZOTIX — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons Force · 60%
Series resultFalcons Force 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2