ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#112 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBanger Gang pick
36%50%
NAVI Junior · 7 mapsedge Banger Gang +14%Banger Gang · 2 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
38%60%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge Banger Gang +22%Banger Gang · 1 map
AncientBanger Gang ban
38%50%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge Banger Gang +12%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%40%
NAVI Junior · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Banger Gang · 1 map
MirageBanger Gang ban
63%50%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +13%Banger Gang · 0 maps
OverpassNAVI Junior pick
50%50%
NAVI Junior · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 2 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
40%50%
NAVI Junior · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
3. PickNAVI Junior take Overpass
4. PickBanger Gang take Anubis
5. BanBanger Gang remove Mirage
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (43% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
NAVI Junior 56%Banger Gang 44%
The model gave 56% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
NAVI Junior 35%Banger Gang 65%
The model gave 65% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 66%
Series resultNAVI Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2