NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · loss 5:13series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 5:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%67%
Wanted Goons · 8 mapsedge For Fun +17%For Fun · 2 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
40%43%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsnearly even -3%For Fun · 3 maps
NukeWanted Goons ban
38%50%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge For Fun +12%For Fun · 4 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
29%33%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsnearly even -4%For Fun · 2 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%57%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge For Fun +7%For Fun · 3 maps
OverpassFor Fun ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%For Fun · 0 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
40%60%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge For Fun +20%For Fun · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
4. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
5. BanWanted Goons remove Nuke
6. BanFor Fun remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Wanted Goons 47%For Fun 53%
The model gave 53% on For Fun — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteFor Fun · 53%
Series resultFor Fun 5:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1