NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Beyond Limits#206 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Without a Roof · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 2 maps
MirageBeyond Limits ban
57%40%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +17%Beyond Limits · 1 map
NukeWithout a Roof ban
50%60%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge Beyond Limits +10%Beyond Limits · 1 map
AncientBeyond Limits ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Dust2Without a Roof ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Beyond Limits · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanBeyond Limits remove Mirage
3. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
4. BanBeyond Limits remove Ancient
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Without a Roof 50%Beyond Limits 50%
The model gave 50% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Beyond Limits.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 56%
Series resultBeyond Limits 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1