NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · win 13:5series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAxial ban
60%40%
Overtake Sector · 11 mapsedge Overtake Sector +20%Axial · 1 map
AncientOvertake Sector ban
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge Axial +8%Axial · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%60%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Axial +5%Axial · 1 map
InfernoAxial ban
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge Axial +8%Axial · 0 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
57%50%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Axial · 0 maps
OverpassAxial ban
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Axial · 0 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
60%50%
Overtake Sector · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Axial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
2. BanAxial remove Inferno
3. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
4. BanAxial remove Overpass
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanAxial remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Overtake Sector 69%Axial 31%
The model gave 69% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 62%
Series resultOvertake Sector 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1