NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#161 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
77%46%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +31%Iowa Stormboar · 9 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
82%55%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
67%33%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +34%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
22%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +28%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
60%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
38%60%
SportsBetExpert · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +22%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%71%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
DeciderCache (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
SportsBetExpert 26%Iowa Stormboar 74%
The model gave 74% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
SportsBetExpert 82%Iowa Stormboar 18%
The model gave 82% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 68%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2