NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Villainous#209 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop pick
54%46%
Chicken Coop · 9 mapsedge Chicken Coop +8%Villainous · 9 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
50%40%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Villainous · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
57%25%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +32%Villainous · 4 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%60%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Villainous +20%Villainous · 6 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
40%44%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even -4%Villainous · 5 maps
NukeVillainous pick
57%60%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Villainous · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +0%Villainous · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. BanVillainous remove Dust2
3. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
4. PickVillainous take Nuke
5. BanVillainous remove Ancient
6. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Chicken Coop 50%Villainous 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 51%
Series resultVillainous 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1