NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#209 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
46%29%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Villainous +17%FarmVille · 3 maps
MirageFarmVille pick
44%57%
Villainous · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +13%FarmVille · 3 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
60%50%
Villainous · 6 mapsedge Villainous +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
25%50%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +25%FarmVille · 0 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%43%
Villainous · 1 mapnearly even -3%FarmVille · 3 maps
CacheVillainous ban
60%40%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +20%FarmVille · 1 map
DefaultFarmVille ban
67%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Villainous +17%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickFarmVille take Mirage
5. BanFarmVille remove Default
6. BanVillainous remove Cache
DeciderInferno (46% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
Villainous 67%FarmVille 33%
The model gave 67% on Villainous — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Villainous 71%FarmVille 29%
The model gave 71% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Villainous 38%FarmVille 62%
The model gave 63% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 56%
Series resultFarmVille 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3