NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#194 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
50%50%
Wanted Goons · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 2 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
36%57%
Wanted Goons · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +21%Without a Roof · 3 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
38%50%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%Without a Roof · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
29%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +21%Without a Roof · 2 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
50%44%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +6%Without a Roof · 5 maps
OverpassWithout a Roof pick
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Without a Roof · 0 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickWithout a Roof take Overpass
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Wanted Goons 28%Without a Roof 72%
The model gave 72% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Wanted Goons 53%Without a Roof 47%
The model gave 53% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 63%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2