NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#162 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAxial ban
40%33%
regain · 11 mapsedge regain +7%Axial · 2 maps
Ancientregain ban
50%50%
regain · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Axial · 0 maps
Dust2regain ban
56%60%
regain · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Axial · 1 map
InfernoAxial ban
50%50%
regain · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Axial · 0 maps
Anubisregain pick
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Axial · 0 maps
CacheAxial pick
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Axial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Ancient
2. BanAxial remove Inferno
3. Pickregain take Anubis
4. PickAxial take Cache
5. BanAxial remove Mirage
6. Banregain remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
regain 50%Axial 50%
The model gave 50% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 65%
Series resultregain 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1