NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DETONATE#193 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
63%44%
Overtake Sector · 12 mapsedge Overtake Sector +19%DETONATE · 5 maps
InfernoDETONATE pick
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge DETONATE +8%DETONATE · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
42%60%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge DETONATE +18%DETONATE · 1 map
AnubisDETONATE ban
57%30%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +27%DETONATE · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
55%40%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Overtake Sector +15%DETONATE · 1 map
CacheOvertake Sector ban
60%50%
Overtake Sector · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%DETONATE · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%43%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%DETONATE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickDETONATE take Inferno
5. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderAncient (42% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Overtake Sector 57%DETONATE 43%
The model gave 57% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Overtake Sector 70%DETONATE 30%
The model gave 70% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Overtake Sector 42%DETONATE 58%
The model gave 58% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 57%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3