NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof ban
44%57%
Without a Roof · 5 mapsedge For Fun +13%For Fun · 3 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
63%50%
Without a Roof · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +13%For Fun · 4 maps
NukeFor Fun pick
50%44%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +6%For Fun · 5 maps
AncientFor Fun ban
57%57%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 3 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
50%43%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%For Fun · 3 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%60%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickFor Fun take Nuke
5. BanFor Fun remove Ancient
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Without a Roof 37%For Fun 63%
The model gave 63% on For Fun — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Without a Roof 65%For Fun 35%
The model gave 65% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 60%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2