NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#193 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
regain#162 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%40%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge DETONATE +10%regain · 11 maps
InfernoDETONATE pick
45%50%
DETONATE · 7 mapsedge regain +5%regain · 6 maps
Ancientregain ban
60%50%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge DETONATE +10%regain · 6 maps
Anubisregain pick
30%60%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge regain +30%regain · 1 map
Dust2DETONATE ban
40%56%
DETONATE · 1 mapedge regain +16%regain · 5 maps
CacheDETONATE ban
43%60%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge regain +17%regain · 1 map
Nukeregain ban
43%50%
DETONATE · 3 mapsedge regain +7%regain · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickDETONATE take Inferno
4. Pickregain take Anubis
5. Banregain remove Ancient
6. BanDETONATE remove Cache
DeciderMirage (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
DETONATE 57%regain 43%
The model gave 57% on DETONATE — the map was taken by regain.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
DETONATE 48%regain 52%
The model gave 52% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 52%
Series resultregain 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2