ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT Academy#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSubaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT Academy pick
38%33%
WBT Academy · 4 mapsedge WBT Academy +5%eSuba · 5 maps
NukeWBT Academy ban
38%43%
WBT Academy · 4 mapsedge eSuba +5%eSuba · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
WBT Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%eSuba · 4 maps
Dust2eSuba ban
67%29%
WBT Academy · 2 mapsedge WBT Academy +38%eSuba · 3 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%63%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge eSuba +13%eSuba · 4 maps
MirageeSuba ban
57%60%
WBT Academy · 3 mapsnearly even -3%eSuba · 1 map
DefaulteSuba pick
60%50%
WBT Academy · 1 mapedge WBT Academy +10%eSuba · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
2. BaneSuba remove Mirage
3. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
4. PickeSuba take Default
5. BaneSuba remove Dust2
6. BanWBT Academy remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
WBT Academy 82%eSuba 18%
The model gave 82% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Anubisprediction correct19:16
WBT Academy 58%eSuba 42%
The model gave 58% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 67%
Series resultWBT Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2