ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Younglings#184 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBanger Gang pick
40%29%
Banger Gang · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +11%Younglings · 3 maps
Dust2Banger Gang ban
33%50%
Banger Gang · 2 mapsedge Younglings +17%Younglings · 2 maps
MirageYounglings ban
50%57%
Banger Gang · 0 mapsedge Younglings +7%Younglings · 3 maps
AnubisYounglings ban
60%50%
Banger Gang · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Younglings · 0 maps
CacheBanger Gang ban
50%60%
Banger Gang · 0 mapsedge Younglings +10%Younglings · 1 map
OverpassYounglings pick
40%50%
Banger Gang · 1 mapedge Younglings +10%Younglings · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBanger Gang remove Cache
2. BanYounglings remove Anubis
3. PickBanger Gang take Ancient
4. PickYounglings take Overpass
5. BanYounglings remove Mirage
6. BanBanger Gang remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Banger Gang 40%Younglings 60%
The model gave 60% on Younglings — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Banger Gang 36%Younglings 64%
The model gave 64% on Younglings — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteYounglings · 57%
Series resultBanger Gang 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2