ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ROUNDS#214 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%33%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge NEXORA +17%ROUNDS · 8 maps
MirageNEXORA pick
40%22%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge NEXORA +18%ROUNDS · 5 maps
AncientNEXORA ban
40%50%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 4 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
50%75%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +25%ROUNDS · 4 maps
InfernoNEXORA ban
50%57%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +7%ROUNDS · 3 maps
CacheROUNDS ban
50%33%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge NEXORA +17%ROUNDS · 2 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
50%33%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge NEXORA +17%ROUNDS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXORA remove Inferno
2. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
3. PickNEXORA take Mirage
4. PickROUNDS take Default
5. BanROUNDS remove Cache
6. BanNEXORA remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
NEXORA 64%ROUNDS 36%
The model gave 64% on NEXORA — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
NEXORA 69%ROUNDS 31%
The model gave 69% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
NEXORA 70%ROUNDS 30%
The model gave 70% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 54%
Series resultNEXORA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3