NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
69%22%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +47%FarmVille · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
82%63%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +19%FarmVille · 4 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
22%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +28%FarmVille · 4 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
77%50%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
60%60%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 1 map
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
44%50%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge FarmVille +6%FarmVille · 2 maps
DefaultFarmVille pick
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
4. PickFarmVille take Default
5. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
DeciderMirage (82% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
SportsBetExpert 20%FarmVille 80%
The model gave 80% on FarmVille — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
SportsBetExpert 90%FarmVille 10%
The model gave 90% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 70%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2