NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#161 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
58%59%
Iowa Stormboar · 8 mapsnearly even -1%Overtake Sector · 13 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%46%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Overtake Sector +16%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
56%55%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
AncientIowa Stormboar pick
71%42%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +29%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
46%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%67%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Ancient
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Iowa Stormboar 48%Overtake Sector 52%
The model gave 52% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction missed1:13
Iowa Stormboar 52%Overtake Sector 48%
The model gave 52% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
Iowa Stormboar 78%Overtake Sector 22%
The model gave 78% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 62%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3