NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LAG#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
regain#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
50%40%
LAG · 4 mapsedge LAG +10%regain · 11 maps
Ancientregain pick
44%55%
LAG · 5 mapsedge regain +11%regain · 7 maps
InfernoLAG ban
44%55%
LAG · 5 mapsedge regain +11%regain · 7 maps
Dust2LAG pick
56%56%
LAG · 5 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 5 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%50%
LAG · 6 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 0 maps
AnubisLAG ban
71%60%
LAG · 3 mapsedge LAG +11%regain · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
LAG · 1 mapnearly even +0%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLAG remove Inferno
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickLAG take Dust2
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Mirage
6. BanLAG remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
LAG 37%regain 63%
The model gave 63% on regain — the map was taken by LAG.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
LAG 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 62%
Series resultLAG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2