ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WBT Academy#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT Academy pick
50%55%
Banger Gang · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +5%WBT Academy · 7 maps
Dust2WBT Academy ban
50%63%
Banger Gang · 2 mapsedge WBT Academy +13%WBT Academy · 4 maps
NukeBanger Gang pick
50%40%
Banger Gang · 0 mapsedge Banger Gang +10%WBT Academy · 6 maps
MirageWBT Academy ban
60%57%
Banger Gang · 1 mapnearly even +3%WBT Academy · 3 maps
AncientBanger Gang ban
40%50%
Banger Gang · 1 mapedge WBT Academy +10%WBT Academy · 2 maps
DefaultBanger Gang ban
50%60%
Banger Gang · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%WBT Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
2. BanWBT Academy remove Mirage
3. PickBanger Gang take Nuke
4. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
5. BanWBT Academy remove Dust2
6. BanBanger Gang remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Banger Gang 40%WBT Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Banger Gang 42%WBT Academy 58%
The model gave 58% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Banger Gang 53%WBT Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 66%
Series resultBanger Gang 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3