NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
regain#162 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
67%50%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +17%regain · 8 maps
Ancientregain pick
67%55%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +12%regain · 7 maps
Mirageregain ban
70%40%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +30%regain · 11 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%regain · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%60%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +7%regain · 1 map
Nukeregain ban
56%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +6%regain · 0 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%60%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge regain +20%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Marsborne 50%regain 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 65%
Series resultMarsborne 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1