ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Banger Gang#225 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Dark Moon pick
56%43%
Dark Moon · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +13%Banger Gang · 3 maps
MirageBanger Gang pick
44%67%
Dark Moon · 5 mapsedge Banger Gang +23%Banger Gang · 2 maps
AncientBanger Gang ban
33%40%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsedge Banger Gang +7%Banger Gang · 1 map
AnubisDark Moon ban
40%60%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +20%Banger Gang · 1 map
DefaultBanger Gang ban
50%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Dark Moon · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banger Gang · 0 maps
NukeDark Moon ban
40%50%
Dark Moon · 1 mapedge Banger Gang +10%Banger Gang · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
2. BanBanger Gang remove Ancient
3. PickDark Moon take Dust2
4. PickBanger Gang take Mirage
5. BanBanger Gang remove Default
6. BanDark Moon remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Dark Moon 65%Banger Gang 35%
The model gave 65% on Dark Moon — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Dark Moon 28%Banger Gang 72%
The model gave 72% on Banger Gang — the map was taken by Banger Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Moon · 54%
Series resultBanger Gang 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2