ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
36%33%
BERG · 10 mapsnearly even +3%NEXORA · 2 maps
MirageNEXORA pick
42%57%
BERG · 8 mapsedge NEXORA +15%NEXORA · 3 maps
AncientBERG pick
46%40%
BERG · 9 mapsedge BERG +6%NEXORA · 1 map
InfernoNEXORA ban
44%50%
BERG · 5 mapsedge NEXORA +6%NEXORA · 0 maps
AnubisBERG ban
38%50%
BERG · 4 mapsedge NEXORA +12%NEXORA · 0 maps
Dust2BERG ban
50%67%
BERG · 0 mapsedge NEXORA +17%NEXORA · 2 maps
DefaultNEXORA ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%NEXORA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanNEXORA remove Inferno
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickNEXORA take Mirage
5. BanNEXORA remove Default
6. BanBERG remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (36% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
BERG 47%NEXORA 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXORA — the map was taken by BERG.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
BERG 59%NEXORA 41%
The model gave 59% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 53%
Series resultBERG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2