ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#166 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
60%54%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +6%LPH · 9 maps
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
40%58%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge LPH +18%LPH · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge LPH +5%LPH · 7 maps
AnubisLPH ban
67%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +17%LPH · 4 maps
InfernoLPH pick
50%67%
OLDBOYS PL · 0 mapsedge LPH +17%LPH · 5 maps
CacheLPH ban
50%33%
OLDBOYS PL · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +17%LPH · 2 maps
MirageOLDBOYS PL ban
33%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge LPH +17%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Mirage
2. BanLPH remove Anubis
3. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Cache
6. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
OLDBOYS PL 53%LPH 47%
The model gave 53% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by LPH.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
OLDBOYS PL 69%LPH 31%
The model gave 69% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
OLDBOYS PL 45%LPH 55%
The model gave 55% on LPH — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 61%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3