Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN#29 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
44%56%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge paiN +12%paiN · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%56%
The MongolZ · 7 mapsedge paiN +11%paiN · 5 maps
InfernopaiN ban
50%50%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 6 maps
Dust2The MongolZ pick
75%56%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsedge The MongolZ +19%paiN · 5 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
40%50%
The MongolZ · 6 mapsedge paiN +10%paiN · 0 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
50%50%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 4 maps
CachepaiN ban
60%29%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +31%paiN · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
2. BanpaiN remove Cache
3. PickThe MongolZ take Dust2
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Inferno
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (45% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
The MongolZ 36%paiN 64%
The model gave 64% on paiN — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
The MongolZ 53%paiN 47%
The model gave 53% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 55%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2