CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
megoshort#200 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#148 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNoir Verse ban
50%56%
megoshort · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +6%Noir Verse · 14 maps
Dust2megoshort pick
60%47%
megoshort · 6 mapsedge megoshort +13%Noir Verse · 15 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
50%50%
megoshort · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 10 maps
Anubismegoshort ban
40%47%
megoshort · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +7%Noir Verse · 11 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
50%50%
megoshort · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 12 maps
Defaultpossible decider
38%36%
megoshort · 4 mapsnearly even +2%Noir Verse · 7 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
60%54%
megoshort · 1 mapedge megoshort +6%Noir Verse · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
3. Pickmegoshort take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Cache
5. BanNoir Verse remove Mirage
6. Banmegoshort remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (38% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
megoshort 53%Noir Verse 47%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
megoshort 53%Noir Verse 47%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 57%
Series resultmegoshort 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2