Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · win 13:6series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 13:6
Trainwrecks#167 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
33%50%
HAVU · 11 mapsedge Trainwrecks +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
NukeTrainwrecks ban
64%50%
HAVU · 7 mapsedge HAVU +14%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
MirageHAVU ban
33%50%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge Trainwrecks +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
38%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge Trainwrecks +12%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
29%50%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge Trainwrecks +21%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
DefaultTrainwrecks ban
67%50%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge HAVU +17%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Inferno
2. BanTrainwrecks remove Default
3. BanHAVU remove Mirage
4. BanTrainwrecks remove Nuke
5. BanHAVU remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
HAVU 33%Trainwrecks 67%
The model gave 67% on Trainwrecks — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 53%
Series resultHAVU 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1