NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SportsBetExpert#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
62%71%
Without a Roof · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +9%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
64%85%
Without a Roof · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +21%SportsBetExpert · 9 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
43%79%
Without a Roof · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +36%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
50%36%
Without a Roof · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +14%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
55%50%
Without a Roof · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +5%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%60%
Without a Roof · 1 mapnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%40%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%SportsBetExpert · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Without a Roof 66%SportsBetExpert 34%
The model gave 66% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Without a Roof 15%SportsBetExpert 85%
The model gave 85% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 61%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2