NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LAG#91 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
62%50%
Without a Roof · 9 mapsedge Without a Roof +12%LAG · 8 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
64%45%
Without a Roof · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +19%LAG · 7 maps
Dust2LAG pick
44%58%
Without a Roof · 5 mapsedge LAG +14%LAG · 8 maps
AncientLAG ban
55%56%
Without a Roof · 7 mapsnearly even -1%LAG · 5 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
38%64%
Without a Roof · 4 mapsedge LAG +26%LAG · 7 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%75%
Without a Roof · 1 mapedge LAG +15%LAG · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Without a Roof · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Inferno
3. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Ancient
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Without a Roof 23%LAG 77%
The model gave 77% on LAG — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Without a Roof 52%LAG 48%
The model gave 52% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by LAG.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Without a Roof 68%LAG 32%
The model gave 68% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 55%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3