NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 3:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof pick
71%62%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +9%Without a Roof · 9 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
85%67%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +18%Without a Roof · 8 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
80%44%
SportsBetExpert · 11 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +36%Without a Roof · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%44%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Without a Roof · 5 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%50%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 8 maps
AnubisSportsBetExpert pick
60%60%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 1 map
CacheWithout a Roof pick
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
4. PickWithout a Roof take Inferno
5. PickSportsBetExpert take Anubis
6. PickWithout a Roof take Cache
DeciderDust2 (42% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
SportsBetExpert 44%Without a Roof 56%
The model gave 56% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
SportsBetExpert 85%Without a Roof 15%
The model gave 85% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
SportsBetExpert 58%Without a Roof 42%
The model gave 58% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
SportsBetExpert 76%Without a Roof 24%
The model gave 76% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
SportsBetExpert 40%Without a Roof 60%
The model gave 60% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 68%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 5