WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · win 3:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
54%53%
WW · 9 mapsnearly even +1%Virtus.pro · 15 maps
MirageWW pick
69%59%
WW · 9 mapsedge WW +10%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
NukeVirtus.pro pick
38%77%
WW · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +39%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
40%64%
WW · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +24%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
WW · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
AncientWW ban
50%60%
WW · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
WW · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
3. PickWW take Mirage
4. PickVirtus.pro take Nuke
5. PickWW take Dust2
6. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
WW 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on WW — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
WW 14%Virtus.pro 86%
The model gave 86% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by WW.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
WW 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
WW 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
WW 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultWW 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 5